Published by SAN BADA DEVELOPMENT · Kuta Lombok, South Lombok

If you've been researching villa investments in Lombok, you've almost certainly encountered projections that sound extraordinary — "15% net yield", "completely booked year-round", "passive income from day one". Some of those numbers are real. Many are not. This guide cuts through the noise and presents what the data actually shows, using figures from AirDNA, Airbtics, and AirROI alongside on-the-ground observations from Kuta Lombok, the island's most established short-term rental market.

The goal is not to discourage investment. Lombok's rental market is genuinely strong, and well-positioned villas generate convincing returns. The goal is to give you a realistic framework so your projections hold up when the villa is actually operating.

Why Kuta Lombok Is the Benchmark

Kuta is the natural starting point for any rental yield analysis in South Lombok. It has the highest concentration of operational villas, the most developed tourism infrastructure, and the longest track record of short-term rental data. When investors ask "how much can a villa in Lombok earn", they're almost always asking about Kuta.

The broader administrative area — Kabupaten Lombok Tengah — is tracked by AirDNA with 2,490 active listings as of mid-2025. The market has achieved a Market Score of 85 out of 100, rated as "Excellent", with solid subscores for Rental Demand (82) and Revenue Growth (82). These are not promotional figures; they come from the platform's own algorithm applied to actual booking data.

The Core Numbers: What AirDNA and Airbtics Show

The table below consolidates the most relevant metrics from three independent data sources covering the Kuta Lombok and South Lombok market.

Metric	AirDNA (Lombok Tengah)	Airbtics (South Lombok)	AirROI (Praya Barat / Kuta)
Active Listings	2,490	994	30 (Praya Barat micromarket)
Occupancy Rate	45%	64%	31.4% average / 62.1% peak season
Average Daily Rate (ADR)	$112.6	$78 (IDR 1,266,606)	$104
RevPAR	$47.9	—	$44
Annual Revenue (median)	$9,500	~$18,000 (IDR 297,701K)	$11,180
Year-over-Year Growth	+3%	+8.2%	—
Active Listings Growth	+3%	+41.1%	+1,400% (new market)
Data Period	Mid-2025	Feb 2025 – Jan 2026	Jun 2025 – May 2026

Sources: AirDNA MarketMinder, Airbtics, AirROI — all accessed June 2025.

Several things stand out. First, occupancy figures vary significantly between sources because they're measuring different submarkets and using different methodologies. AirDNA's 45% is a broad average across all listing types, including private rooms and budget guesthouses. Airbtics' 64% for South Lombok reflects the stronger performance of the Kuta-Selong Belanak corridor. The reality for a well-managed, well-located villa sits closer to the upper end of this range.

Second, the annual revenue figures represent median performance across all listing types. A private room in a guesthouse and a three-bedroom villa with pool are both counted in these averages. When you filter for full-villa listings with pools — which is what most investors are building — the numbers look considerably better.

The Top 50% Benchmark: What Meaningful Performance Actually Looks Like

The median figures above include every listing on the market — budget rooms, poorly managed properties, and villas that sit half-empty. If you're planning to build or acquire a well-designed, professionally managed villa, the median is not your benchmark. The top 50% is.

AirROI's performance tier data for the Praya Barat / Kuta market shows a dramatic spread across listing quality:

Performance Tier	Monthly Revenue	Annual Revenue	Occupancy Rate	ADR	RevPAR
Top 10% (Best-in-class)	$5,022+	$60,000+	74%+	$208+	$68
Top 25% (Strong performers)	$2,771+	$33,000+	57%+	$114+	$51
Top 50% (Median and above)	$1,233+	$14,800+	37%+	$72+	$22+
Bottom 25% (Entry-level)	~$608	~$7,300	~21%	~$45	$5
Market Average	$932	$11,180	31.4%	$104	$44

Source: AirROI Praya Barat STR Report, June 2026.

The takeaway is clear: a well-positioned villa with a private pool, professional management, and quality presentation should target the top 25% tier — monthly revenue of $2,771+ and annual revenue of $33,000+. This is not an optimistic projection; it is the actual performance of the better half of the market.

For context, AirROI's amenity data shows that listings with a pool earn $15,442 annually versus $1,234 without — a revenue uplift of 1,151%. In the Kuta market, a private pool is not a luxury; it is the single most important revenue driver, and the baseline expectation for any villa priced above $100 per night.

Revenue by Villa Size: Realistic Annual Projections

The following projections are based on market data from the sources above, cross-checked against actual listing prices visible on Airbnb and Booking.com for Kuta Lombok as of mid-2025. These figures assume a well-designed, professionally managed villa in a good location within Kuta — walkable to restaurants and the beach, with private pool and quality photography.

Villa Type	Nightly Rate Range	Annual Occupancy	Gross Annual Revenue	Estimated Net Revenue*
1 Bedroom	$100 – $180	55 – 65%	$20,000 – $43,000	$14,000 – $30,000
2 Bedroom	$150 – $280	55 – 65%	$30,000 – $66,000	$21,000 – $46,000
3 Bedroom	$220 – $420	50 – 60%	$40,000 – $92,000	$28,000 – $64,000

Net revenue after deducting platform fees (15–18%), villa management (15–20%), and utilities/maintenance (~$500–$1,000/month). Does not include mortgage payments or depreciation.

These ranges are deliberately wide because location and management quality are the two variables that matter most. A poorly positioned villa on the outskirts of Kuta, managed by an inexperienced operator, will sit at the lower end of the range. A well-located, professionally managed villa with solid reviews and dynamic pricing will approach the upper end — and potentially exceed it.

Luxury Villa with Private Pool at Sunset

Seasonality: When Kuta Earns and When It Slows

Lombok doesn't have a true low season the way, say, a European beach destination does. But it does have pronounced peaks and valleys that every investor needs to understand before building a financial model.

Peak Season (July – September): This is when Lombok earns. European summer holidays drive the majority of international arrivals, and occupancy in Kuta regularly exceeds 70–80% for well-managed villas. AirROI data shows peak season average monthly revenue of $3,884 across the Praya Barat market, with top-performing listings reaching $5,000+ per month. ADR during this period can reach $125–$150 for a two-bedroom villa.

Secondary Peak (December – January): The Christmas and New Year period brings a second wave of visitors, primarily from Australia and Singapore. Occupancy is strong but shorter-duration — typically three to four weeks rather than the sustained two to three months of European summer.

MotoGP Week (Early October): This deserves its own category. The Pertamina Grand Prix of Indonesia at Mandalika Circuit — located just 10 minutes from Kuta — draws 140,000+ spectators over race weekend (a record set in 2025). During this 4–5 day window, ADR for well-positioned villas routinely doubles or triples. Listings that normally command $150–$200/night are booked at $300–$500+/night, and properties within 15 minutes of the circuit sell out weeks in advance. Cancellations and re-listings at 2–3x the original rate are common enough that Lombok's tourism board has publicly urged operators to maintain pricing integrity. For a two-bedroom villa, a single MotoGP week can generate the equivalent of an entire month's normal revenue. The 2026 race is scheduled for October 9–11.

Shoulder Season (April – June, October): Outside of MotoGP week, October occupancy moderates to 40–55%. Rates hold reasonably well because supply in Kuta hasn't yet caught up with demand. This is a good time for longer-stay bookings from digital nomads and remote workers.

Low Season (February – March, November): This is the period that surprises investors. Occupancy can drop to 25–35%, and revenue can fall to $1,000–$1,500 per month for a two-bedroom villa. Building a cash reserve during peak months is essential.

Season	Months	Typical Occupancy	Monthly Revenue (2BR)
Peak	July – September	70 – 85%	$4,000 – $6,500
Secondary Peak	December – January	60 – 75%	$3,000 – $5,000
MotoGP Week	Early October (4–5 days)	95 – 100%	$8,000 – $15,000*
Shoulder	April – June, Oct (ex-MotoGP)	40 – 55%	$2,000 – $3,500
Low	February – March, November	25 – 35%	$1,000 – $1,800

*MotoGP week revenue estimate for a 2BR villa at peak event pricing. ADR typically 100–200% above normal rates.

What Drives the Difference Between Good and Average Returns

The data shows a wide spread between top-performing and average listings. AirROI data for Praya Barat shows that top-10% listings achieve $5,022+ per month while the median sits at $1,233. That's a four-to-one difference. The variables that explain most of this gap are:

Pool. Listings with a pool earn $15,442 annually versus $1,234 without — a revenue uplift of 1,151%. In the Kuta market, a private pool is not a luxury; it's a baseline expectation for any villa priced above $100 per night.

Location within Kuta. Walkability to restaurants, the beach, and town center drives both occupancy and ADR. Villas that require a scooter ride to get anywhere will underperform villas that are five minutes' walk from Kuta's main strip.

Management Quality. Professional property management — responsive communication, dynamic pricing, quality photography, and consistent housekeeping — accounts for a significant portion of the performance gap. The difference between 45% and 65% occupancy is often management, not location.

Review Score. AirROI data shows an average guest rating of 4.84 across the Praya Barat market, with 33.3% of listings carrying the Guest Favorite badge. Listings below 4.7 see noticeably lower conversion rates.

Gross Yield vs. Net Yield: The Numbers That Matter

Gross yield is what most marketing materials cite. Net yield is what you actually earn. The gap between the two is substantial.

For a 2-bedroom villa in Kuta priced at $200,000 (leasehold, 25-year term):

Item	Annual Amount (USD)
Gross rental revenue (60% occ., $200/night)	$43,800
Platform fees (Airbnb/Booking, ~16%)	($7,008)
Villa management fee (18%)	($6,588)
Utilities (electricity, water, internet)	($4,800)
Staff (housekeeper, gardener)	($3,600)
Maintenance and repairs	($3,000)
Property tax (PBB, ~0.5% of assessed value)	($1,000)
Net Revenue	$17,804
Net Yield on $200,000	~8.9%

This is a realistic scenario for a well-managed villa, not a best-case projection. The gross yield would be approximately 21.9% on the same numbers — a figure that looks impressive but tells you nothing about what actually lands in your account.

For context, Nour Estates' market analysis for Lombok places net yields for 1-bedroom villas at 8–12% and 3-bedroom luxury villas at 10–15%. These ranges align with the calculation above and with the broader data from AirDNA and Airbtics.

If you target the top 25% performance tier — which is achievable with the right property, location, and management — the same $200,000 villa generating $33,000+ in annual revenue would yield approximately 16.5% net after operating costs. This is the realistic upside for a well-executed investment, not a promotional figure.

The Investment Case: Why Lombok Still Makes Sense

Despite the more measured tone of this analysis, the case for villa investment in Lombok remains strong — for the right property, in the right location, with the right structure.

Supply is still catching up to demand. Active listings in South Lombok grew 41% year-over-year according to Airbtics, but tourism arrivals are growing faster. The Mandalika International Street Circuit continues to drive event-based demand, and new direct flight routes — including TransNusa's Bali-Lombok service launched late 2025 — are expanding the accessible visitor base.

Entry costs are lower than Bali. A comparable villa in Seminyak or Canggu costs two to three times what the same quality villa costs in Kuta Lombok. Lower entry costs at similar or better yield percentages is the core of the Lombok investment thesis.

The guest profile is improving. AirROI data shows 94% of guests on the Praya Barat market are international visitors, with Germany (22.1%) and France (16.4%) as top origin markets. This is a high-spend demographic that pushes ADR upward over time.

Capital appreciation is real. Reef Property's 2025 market review notes that quality land in Kuta is "now extremely limited", with overflow demand moving to adjacent areas like Are Guling and Selong Belanak. Villas purchased at current prices in prime Kuta locations will likely appreciate significantly over a 10-year horizon.

What to Watch Out For

No investment guide would be complete without the risks. Three deserve particular attention in the Lombok context.

Off-plan projects with unrealistic projections. Reef Property's 2025 review explicitly warns that "many [off-plan projects] will never be built." Projected returns of 20%+ are almost always gross figures applied to below-market construction cost estimates. Demand to see a detailed net yield calculation, a track record of completed projects, and evidence of existing rental performance before committing.

Management dependency. A villa that runs at 65% occupancy under professional management can drop to 35% under self-management or with an inexperienced operator. If you're not based in Lombok, budget for professional management and include it in your yield calculation from the start.

Leasehold structure and term length. Most villa investments in Lombok are structured as leasehold (Hak Sewa) or through a PT PMA. The rental yield calculation changes significantly depending on whether you're working with a 15-year or 30-year term. Shorter terms compress effective yield because you're amortizing the purchase price over fewer years. Always verify the remaining term and extension rights before buying. For a full explanation of ownership structures available to foreign investors, see our guide: How Foreigners Can Legally Own Property in Lombok.

Summary: What to Expect

The table below summarizes realistic expectations for a well-positioned, professionally managed villa in Kuta Lombok, based on current market data.

Metric	Median Market	Top 50% Target	Top 25% Target
Annual occupancy rate	31 – 45%	55 – 65%	65 – 75%
Average nightly rate (2BR)	$72 – $104	$150 – $200	$200 – $280
Gross annual revenue (2BR)	$11,000 – $18,000	$30,000 – $47,000	$47,000 – $75,000
Net yield on $200K investment	3 – 6%	7 – 12%	12 – 16%
Peak season occupancy	62%	70 – 80%	80 – 90%

The median market figures are what you get if you build an average villa and manage it averagely. The top 50% and top 25% figures are what you get when you execute well — right location, right design, right operator. The gap between these tiers is large, and it is almost entirely within your control.

If your investment thesis depends on numbers outside the top 25% range, it's worth revisiting the assumptions. If it works within these ranges, Lombok — and Kuta in particular — offers a genuinely compelling combination of yield, capital appreciation potential, and lifestyle value that few markets in Southeast Asia can match at current entry prices.

Villa Rental Yield in Lombok: A 2025–2026 Data Snapshot